Arandell Corporation

Blake Hutchison, Director of Purchasing

Over the past three business days, we have seen the North American paper mills announce price increases.  The following is a list of mills, the affected grades, and when the increase takes effect:

 Appleton Coated:

• $1.50/CWT
• Effected grades:
  • Utopia 3
  • Utopia Book Family Grades
  • Utopia Film Coat
  • All private label grades
• All basis weights and finishes
• Effective with shipments April 1^st, 2010 or later.

 West Linn:

• $1.50/CWT
• Effected Grades:
  • Sonoma
  • Capistrano
  • Natureweb
  • Natureweb Plus
• All basis weights and finishes
• Effective with all new or existing orders shipped on or after April 1^st 2010.

 Verso:

• $1.50/CWT
• Effected Grades:
  • Influence
  • Velocity
  • Liberty
  • Advocate
  • Clarity
• All basis weights and finishes
• Effective with all orders entered immediately (3/15) and all order shipping on or after April 1^st 2010.

 Evergreen:

• $1.50/CWT
• Effected Grades:
  • TruSpec 4
  • TruSpec 4.5
  • TruSpec 5
• All basis weights and finishes
• Effective with orders entered immediately (3/16) and all orders shipping on or after April 1^st, 2010.

 AbitibiBowater:

• $1.50/CWT
• Effected Grades:
  • AbiBowGloss
  • AbiBowBright 76
  • AbiBowBright 80
  • AbiBowMax 84
  • AbiBow SCA
  • AbiBow SCB
  • AbiBow SNC
• All basis weights and finishes
• Effective for all new orders placed immediately and for all shipments effective May 1^st, 2010.

 NewPage

• $1.50/cwt
• Effected grades:
  • Arborweb
  • Orion
  • Vision
  • Escanaba
  • Dependoweb
  • Capri
  • Consoweb
• All basis weights and finishes
• Effective with new orders entered on or after March 15^th, 2010.

Why the increase?

In discussing these increases with the various mills, the most common answer has been their production COSTS. Indeed, those have been on a slow, but steady rise over the past six months, especially with the price of their primary input, pulp. The mills were able to absorb these rising costs as long as they were still making money from the Black Liquor tax credit, but now that it is gone (as of 12/31/09) they are hurting.

Another reason being given is the strength they are seeing in their order logs. Since November 2009, there has been an uptick in orders, and year over year paper shipment numbers have seen double digit increases since December 2009. The mills have curtailed so much production in the past 24 months that they believe they have been able to bring their supply level in line with demand. 

Will there be more?

My estimate is that the $1.50/cwt increase is only half of what the mills really want. I believe they initially wanted $3.00/cwt, but have since realized that perhaps two $1.50/cwt quarterly increases would be a more effective way to incrementally get what they desire. I very much expect to see another $1.50/cwt increase, effective July 1, 2010.

Gary Sierzchulski, VP, Arandell Data Services

A funny thing happened on the way to proclaiming the print catalog is dead……..IT’S STILL ALIVE!

If you have spent the early days of 2010 analyzing the results of your Fall and Holiday campaigns, you may have noticed something a little strange; emails, God love’em, were blasted out in record numbers in 2009. That was good news for me because I sold a lot of email appends.  As a result of all that clutter in peoples’ inboxes, not to be confused with mailboxes, the results were not all that impressive. In my humble opinion, direct marketers looking to cut costs as much as possible, yet still justify their existence, took the route of emails over direct mail to get the message to their customers, or in some cases to prospects. In many peoples’ analyses they noticed that the average transactional value in most cases significantly decreased. Marketers took the approach that more is better. Now many are discovering that more is not always effective. That’s the bad news for me – now they want answers as to why this approach did not always work. While marketers are trying to get a handle on this, we have seen the number of emails significantly decrease over the first two months of 2010, almost by the same amount they increased last year. Oh yeah…I forgot to mention that many are turning back to the direct side in the meantime.

Do not be confused; email campaigns are still highly critical to one’s overall marketing and branding efforts. What seems to have been lost is the fact that many of these email campaigns fail to “show me the money.” Just because they are cheap, it does not mean they are the best way to engage your customers. In order for an email campaign to be successful, the same tried and true direct marketing rules need to be applied. In fact, because emails are inexpensive there is no reason for the campaign NOT to be relevant, personal and recognizing the customers’ recent history with you. 

Here is a thought you may want to consider…if you have customers that have not purchased from you in the past six to nine months, conduct a test (isn’t that the beauty of direct marketing?). Take half of those customers and send them an email offer enticing them back to you. Then take the other half and send them a direct mail piece (catalog or similar) with the same message. I’ll bet you two things will happen: (1) your average transaction will be higher from the mailpiece as opposed to the email and (2) overall sales from the campaign will be higher. If you really want to get nuts, segment this group into thirds and the third group gets both the email and direct mail piece. 

However you want to do this, the important factor here is that you talk to these people as individuals. I was just at the Black Eyed Peas concert the other night along with 14,000 others. We were all there to see the great performance so we had that in common (like the customers who buy from you), but as I looked around, I realized I had very little else in common with those around me. So to “target” a message to this general audience about an after-concert party at a night club offering three-for-one shots of some kind of vodka until 3:00 a.m. on a work night would not interest me (actually it does but for this article the official word is that it does not). But a message telling me of a valet service that would also allow me a quicker exit from the place after the concert would be of great interest. The point is that your customers are very different from one another. You have the data to prove that. You do, right? If not call me ASAP. Now use it like there’s no tomorrow (because one never knows).

Me? I want to be media agnostic – use the best channel or channels for the specific campaign. But all channels should work together so your company will not only survive but thrive. 

Remember – your catalog is still the most important merchandising tool you have. Treat it as such.